• Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 7 months ago

    I first heard of this via the podcast itself, and my first thought was “shit, how am I going to replace this podcast?” I eventually talked my way out of unsubscribing (hearing the Novellas bounce off one another is rather amusing, I’ll admit), but the show always felt like it was missing something critical when you couldn’t make it.

    I’ll…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 10 months ago

    UPDATE
    Anita Sarkeesian has canceled her scheduled speech for tomorrow following a discussion with Utah State University police regarding an email threat that was sent to Utah State University. During the discussion, Sarkeesian asked if weapons will be permitted at the speaking venue. Sarkeesian was informed that, in accordance with the State of…

    [Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 10 months ago

    I’d like to point out an important detail:

    In order to determine the degree of risk the letter posed, police ran the information they had through the FBI cyber terrorism task force and a number of other statewide database analysis information centers.

    ”They determined the threat seems to be consistent with ones (Sarkeesian) has received a…

    [Read more]

    • Amazing! They’ve got the guy (or guys) in the database and then do zip.
      The main thing is that Anita will be safe!

    • She has only herself to blame because other people have threatened her as well? Can she sue the shit out of state of Utah (in Federal court) for failing to protect her civil rights?

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 10 months ago

    Unfortunately, you probably haven’t chosen the best article upon which to base your case.

    Fair enough, I’ll use yours instead.

    Curiously, you omit the very next sentence: “However, measurable differences existed for complex problem-solving beginning in high school years (d=+0.29 favoring males), which might forecast underrepresentation of…

    [Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 10 months ago

    1. In mathematics, boys perform better than girls, on average

    Yeah-huh.

    Meta-analytic findings from 1990 (6, 7) indicated that gender differences in math performance in the general population were trivial, d= –0.05, where the effect size, d, is the mean for males minus the mean for females, divided by the pooled within-gender standard d…

    [Read more]

    • @Hj Hornbeck: You quote extensively from Janet S. Hyde, et. al., “Gender similarities characterize math performance,” Science, 321:94-95, 2008. Unfortunately, you probably haven’t chosen the best article upon which to base your case.

      1. First, the data obtained by Heyde et. al. (2008) appears to be a snapshot of NAEP scores for 10 US states…[Read more]

      • Unfortunately, you probably haven’t chosen the best article upon which to base your case.

        Fair enough, I’ll use yours instead.

        Curiously, you omit the very next sentence: “However, measurable differences existed for complex problem-solving beginning in high school years (d=+0.29 favoring males), which might forecast underrepresentation of…

        [Read more]

    • @Hj Hornbeck wrote: “… I will note that while the general idea that men exhibit more variance than women has been around for a hundred years, the magnitude of the variance seems inversely proportional to the sample size…”

      The idea that variance estimates could be inversely proportional to sample sizes doesn’t make much sense. After all the…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 10 months ago

    Wow, between Bernstein’s article on Bayes’s Theorem and this one, I feel like I’ve got solid evidence I’m precognitive. Seven months ago, I did a lecture on gender and sex that talked quite a bit about sex differences. If you want a quick, one-paper refutation of large-scale sex differences, I recommend this:

    The striking result is that 30% of…

    [Read more]

    • Thanks for the reference!

      Yes, there’s a lot more out there. I just referenced some of the books that are best known for handling this topic. I have a good deal more material on my computer, but I’m always looking for more.

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 10 months ago

    1) There is no “pass” or “fail” for the test itself, because Bem had no idea how strong the precognition effect is. All he knows is that it cannot be equivalent to blind-chance guessing, as I said last comment. There were no questions, either, just photos; the methodology portion I quoted is for one experiment, but similar to the others in the…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    always curious:

    Can a Bayensian approach eventually lead everyone to agree on a conclusion even if they have different starting points?

    You bet. Here’s a spreadsheet to help demonstrate that. Download a copy, tweak the variables, and prove it to yourself.

    StackExchangeUser1:

    There is a 0.7% probability of getting Bem’s results if the…

    [Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    The p-value of 5% only suggests that the probability of passing the test (getting some x or more answers to be correct) while being not-a-psychic is 5%. That is Pr(Pass | Not psychic) = 5%. This does not imply that Pr(Pass | Psychic) = 95%, because no assumption is being about what the “ground truth” is, that is what Pr(Psychic) and Pr(Not psy…

    [Read more]

    • I have two responses to make:

      1) By Pr(T) I meant the probability of *passing the test*. I haven’t read Bem’s paper, but I suspect that passing the test requires getting much more than 50% of the responses to be correct. If that is the case, then Pr(T) would be some value much less than 0.5. But I agree that if one randomly chooses their…[Read more]

      • 1) There is no “pass” or “fail” for the test itself, because Bem had no idea how strong the precognition effect is. All he knows is that it cannot be equivalent to blind-chance guessing, as I said last comment. There were no questions, either, just photos; the methodology portion I quoted is for one experiment, but similar to the others in the…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    Because if you look at other primate species (and other animals in general), it becomes clear that having the female and male brains be 100% identical and function identically makes no sense in evolution.

    Bit of a blanket statement, there. I can’t speak for other species, but for human beings it runs contrary to biology.

    So while…

    [Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    Ah, those charts take me back. Anyway, I can’t help but share my favorite scientific paper on sex differences.

    The gender similarities hypothesis stands in stark contrast to the differences model, which holds that men and women, and boys and girls, are vastly different psychologically. The gender similarities hypothesis states, instead, that…

    [Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    For instance, you and I might have a hunch that Bem’s study has a false positive probability of ~5% (i.e. close to the upper limit imposed by alpha). But Bem could counter-argue that our intuition is wrong, and his intuition tells him that his work has only a ~1% false positive probability.

    No, that’s not how hypothesis testing works. I t…[Read more]

    • So we’ve been walked through one example, but here’s where I always get stuck: what do we do with that result in the future? If my understanding is correct, the final result gets incorporated into the interpretation of the next test. So consider the two opposing scenarios: Jamie states her probability is 16.1% of psychic powers existing (us…[Read more]

      • Sorry for the delay in response(s)!

        alwayscurious: It’s to be expected that new data cause new controversy. But here, everyone agrees on the new data, and in principle everyone agrees on the aggregate meaning of all of the old data (summarized as the prior probability of psychics existing). Surely we should be able to reach a logical consensus…[Read more]

    • StackExchangeUser1 wrote “But here, everyone agrees on the new data, and in principle everyone agrees on the aggregate meaning of all of the old data (summarized as the prior probability of psychics existing).”

      Sure in principle everyone should agree on a prior probability, but in practice they don’t. And there appears to be a debate about the…[Read more]

    • StackExchangeUser1 wrote:

      I would suggest that a conservative should only accept that FPR <= 5%. Isn't it more conservative to accept an inequality, with its maddening limitations, than force it into an identity?

      That’s an interesting point. I’m not particularly accustomed to seeing calculations involving false positive rates worked using…[Read more]

    • always curious:

      Can a Bayensian approach eventually lead everyone to agree on a conclusion even if they have different starting points?

      You bet. Here’s a spreadsheet to help demonstrate that. Download a copy, tweak the variables, and prove it to yourself.

      StackExchangeUser1:

      There is a 0.7% probability of getting Bem’s results if the…

      [Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    Actually, you might have just made a good argument for pre-cognition, as I’m shopping around an article on statistical analysis that invokes both the box metaphor and Bayes’ Theorem. Mind you, thinking of probabilities in terms of partitioning the space of all possibilities isn’t all that new or unheard of, so P(coincidence | two articles) >…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    Dang, I forgot quotes would be bolded. The parts I was calling out above were the parts that read “when they didn’t want to.” That language has been a part of the Sexual Experiences Survey since it was developed in 1982, and a large chunk of sexual assault research uses that survey as a basis.

    Koss, Mary P., and Cheryl J. Oros. “Sexual E…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    It’s not a matter of force vs incapacitation! Rapists typically need neither. Non-verbal threats are effective and leave the victim with a narrative that people will immediately want to characterize as a misunderstanding.

    Sorry if it seemed otherwise, but I fully agree there. One thing few people realize (lookin’ at you, Tavris) is that these s…[Read more]

    • Dang, I forgot quotes would be bolded. The parts I was calling out above were the parts that read “when they didn’t want to.” That language has been a part of the Sexual Experiences Survey since it was developed in 1982, and a large chunk of sexual assault research uses that survey as a basis.

      Koss, Mary P., and Cheryl J. Oros. “Sexual E…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 11 months ago

    Concentrating on serial offenders could offer a way to increase the rate of conviction. A corollary seems to follow -am I wrong to say that most rapes are committed by serial offenders or am I off track here?

    Nope, you’re not. Lisak and Miller found that of a sample size of 1,882 college men, 120 had attempted or committed rape. Of those 120,…[Read more]

    • It’s not a matter of force vs incapacitation! Rapists typically need neither. Non-verbal threats are effective and leave the victim with a narrative that people will immediately want to characterize as a misunderstanding.

      Some rapists do use alcohol and drugs to incapacitate but the real reason that number is so high is because alcohol and…[Read more]

      • It’s not a matter of force vs incapacitation! Rapists typically need neither. Non-verbal threats are effective and leave the victim with a narrative that people will immediately want to characterize as a misunderstanding.

        Sorry if it seemed otherwise, but I fully agree there. One thing few people realize (lookin’ at you, Tavris) is that these s…[Read more]

        • Dang, I forgot quotes would be bolded. The parts I was calling out above were the parts that read “when they didn’t want to.” That language has been a part of the Sexual Experiences Survey since it was developed in 1982, and a large chunk of sexual assault research uses that survey as a basis.

          Koss, Mary P., and Cheryl J. Oros. “Sexual E…[Read more]

    • @HJ Hornbeck – thanks for that link, I had forgotten the source but have read it before. ~90% of rapes committed by ~10% of rapists. Strong correlation with violence and child abuse also. Horrifying.

      If we consider those thousands of unexamined rape kits lying around all over the US, and enter the name of each accused into a national database,…[Read more]

  • Hj Hornbeck posted a new activity comment 3 years, 12 months ago

    Excellent post, Amy! I hope you can speak out more in future, as we badly need more discussion about intersex people, by intersex people, if we’re to break through society’s taboos and bigotry.

    • Thank you, HJ! I hope to write some more on the topic soon, and more than just my personal story. It is so easy for most of us to blend in and not speak out, as I appear as a normal woman, except for those XY chromosomes, so it’s good to know we have support!